The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of May 2021, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Four states have a negative interest rate (down from 8 last month and down from 8 last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Luxembourg, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 3.34 percentage points (up from 3.22 last month and down from 5.06 last year). Luxembourg had the lowest rate last month and Germany had the lowest rate last year. Romania had the highest rate last month and last year.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.24 (up from 0.16 the previous month and down from 0.31 last year) and the mean 0.59 (up from 0.48 the previous month and down from 0.67 last year).
- Of the 27 states, 3 saw no change in the long-term interest rate from the previous month, 1 saw the rate decrease, and 23 saw the rate increase.
- Of the 27 states, 0 saw no change in the long-term interest rate from last year, 13 saw the rate decrease, and 14 saw the rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from May 2020, April 2021, and May 2021.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Czechia saw the rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.12 percentage points. On the flip side, Poland saw the rate rise the most gaining 0.27 percentage points. Year over year, Romania saw the rate drop the most with a 1.51 percentage point drop while Hungary saw the rate rise the most gaining 0.95 percentage points.
Bulgaria (from 13th lowest rate to 9th lowest rate), Lithuania (from 14th to 10th), and Croatia (from 20th to 16th) rose 4 spots over the course of the month. Conversely, France (from 8th to 12th) fell 4 spots.
Over the course of the year, Latvia (from 13th to 4th) and Slovakia (from 15th to 6th) rose 9 spots. On the flip side, the United Kingdom (from 12th to 21st) fell 9 spots.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was 0.67% in May 2020, 1.62% in April 2021, and 1.61% in May 2021, meaning that Czechia, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was 0.00% in May 2020, 0.09% in April 2021, and 0.08% in May 2021 being bested by Luxembourg, Germany, the Netherlands, Latvia, Finland, Slovakia, Austria, France, Denmark, Slovenia, Belgium, and Ireland.
Data
| State | May 2020 | April 2021 | May 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | -0.1 | -0.04 | 0.08 |
| Belgium | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Bulgaria | 0.2 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Croatia | 0.91 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cyprus | 1.69 | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| Czechia | 0.92 | 1.86 | 1.74 |
| Denmark | -0.29 | 0 | 0.11 |
| Finland | -0.12 | -0.08 | 0.05 |
| France | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.21 |
| Germany | -0.52 | -0.33 | -0.22 |
| Greece | 1.93 | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| Hungary | 1.99 | 2.69 | 2.94 |
| Ireland | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Italy | 1.76 | 0.8 | 0.98 |
| Latvia | 0.26 | -0.21 | -0.06 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Luxembourg | -0.32 | -0.38 | -0.31 |
| Malta | 0.7 | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| Netherlands | -0.31 | -0.3 | -0.19 |
| Poland | 1.35 | 1.55 | 1.82 |
| Portugal | 0.81 | 0.35 | 0.53 |
| Romania | 4.54 | 2.84 | 3.03 |
| Slovakia | 0.56 | -0.06 | 0.07 |
| Slovenia | 0.74 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Spain | 0.74 | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| Sweden | -0.06 | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| United Kingdom | 0.22 | 0.78 | 0.82 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2021. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed July 9, 2021. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_-C79FFD_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2021. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed July 9, 2021. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_-6941F557_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.