The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of November 2021, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Four states have a negative interest rate (up from 3 last month and down from 13 last year).

The one-month and three-month rates trended downwards for the third year in a row while all other rates went up ending their downward trend at two years.  The yield curve widened over the course of the year.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

The one-month rate fell while all other rates rose in December.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak at two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate.  There were no major moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of October 2021, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Three states have a negative interest rate (down from 7 last month and down from 14 last year).

The five-year, seven-year, 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year rates fell, the three-month rate stayed the same, while all other rates rose in November.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were moves upwards on short-term rates thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of September 2021, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Seven states have a negative interest rate (down from 11 last month and down from 13 last year).

The one-month, 20-year, and 30-year rates fell while all other rates rose in October.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak at two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were moves upwards on short-term rates thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of August 2021, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Eleven states have a negative interest rate (up from 9 last month and down from 13 last year).

The six-month rate fell, the three-month rate stayed the same, while all other rates rose in September.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus extending its widening streak to two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were moves upwards on short-term rates thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of July 2021, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Nine states have a negative interest rate (up from 4 last month and down from 12 last year).