EU and US GDP Growth Rate by Region, First Quarter 2021

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate in each EU and US region as of the first quarter of 2021 and the growth rate from one year prior.  Every single region's economy grew over the previous quarter.

Findings

• The difference between the region with the largest annualized quarterly growth rate, the Eastern EU, and the region with the smallest, the Southern EU, is 2.30 percentage points.
• The difference between the region with the largest year-over-year growth rate, the Northern EU, and the region with the smallest, the Northeastern US, is 13.05 percentage points.
• Of the eight regions, 2 (0 EU, 2 US) grew faster over the previous quarter than they did over the same quarter last year, 0 (0 EU, 0 US) saw the same growth over both time periods, and 6 (4 EU, 2 US) grew slower over the previous quarter than they did over the same quarter last year.
• Some EU gains in growth rate are attributed to currency rate fluctuations.

Caveats

• Data is from the first quarter of 2020, the fourth quarter of 2020, and the first quarter of 2021.
• The data is seasonally adjusted in current dollars.
• Euros are converted to dollars at an average exchange rate of 1.10 for the first quarter of 2020, 1.19 for the fourth quarter of 2020, and 1.21 for the first quarter of 2021 according to historic rates listed at the Federal Reserve (see source link below).
• US data comes in an annualized format which the EU does not, thus EU data is annualized by multiplying the quarterly figure by four.
• US growth rates may differ from those provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as the BEA's growth rates are based on chained dollars in conjunction with the chain index or the quality index for real GDP.  The growth rates listed here are based on nominal GDP.
• All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
• The Eastern EU consists of Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
• The Midwestern US consists of Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
• The Northeastern US consists of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Delaware, Maine, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
• The Northern EU consists of Sweden, Denmark, and Finland.
• The Southern EU consists of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, and Malta.
• The Southern US consists of Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Louisiana, South Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, and West Virginia.
• The Western EU consists of Germany, United Kingdom, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Ireland, and Luxembourg.
• The Western US consists of California, Washington, Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, Hawaii, Idaho, Alaska, Montana, and Wyoming.

Details

The Southern EU had the worst performance over the previous quarter with an annualized rate of 1.51%.  The Eastern EU had the best performance with an annualized rate of 3.81%.

Year over year, the Northeastern US had the worst performance with an annualized rate of 0.73% while the Northern EU had the best performance with an annualized rate of 13.78%.

The Northern EU saw the worst change in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth slowing its rate by 10.30 percentage points.  The Northeastern EU had the best change in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth raising its rate by 1.48 percentage points.

The Northeastern US had the smallest range in annualized quarterly growth rates with a low of 1.85% in Delaware to a high of 2.71% in Pennsylvania.  Conversely, the Western EU had the greatest range in annualized quarterly growth rates with a low of 0.87% in the Netherlands to a high of 11.73% in Ireland.  Year-over-year, the Southern US had the smallest range in growth rates with a low of 1.23% in Oklahoma to a high of 4.35% in West Virginia.  The Western EU on the other hand, had the greatest range of rates on a year-over-year basis with a low of 6.18% in the United Kingdom to a high of 19.74% in Ireland.

Sources

Eurostat.  2021.  "GDP and Main Components."  Accessed July 21, 2021.  https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-406779_QID_-41E5E7A5_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;UNIT,L,Z,0;S_ADJ,L,Z,1;NA_ITEM,L,Z,2;INDICATORS,C,Z,3;&zSelection=DS-406779UNIT,CP_MEUR;DS-406779INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-406779NA_ITEM,B1GQ;DS-406779S_ADJ,SCA;&rankName1=UNIT_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=NA-ITEM_1_2_-1_2&rankName4=S-ADJ_1_2_-1_2&rankName5=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName6=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Federal Reserve.  2021.  "Foreign Exchange Rates."  Accessed July 21, 2021.  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/.

Office for National Statistics.  2021.  "Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: Seasonally adjusted £m - Office for National Statistics."  Accessed July 21, 2021.  https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ybha/ukea.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis.  2021.  "GDP by State."  Accessed July 20, 2021.  https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state.