EU and US GDP Growth Rate by State, Fourth Quarter 2018

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate when the GDP is priced in US dollars in each EU and US state as of the fourth quarter of 2018 and the growth rate from one year prior.  Most states experienced more sluggish growth over the past quarter than they did over the previous year.

Findings

• The difference between the state with the largest annualized quarterly growth rate, Texas, and the state with the smallest, Greece, is 13.2 percentage points.
• The difference between the state with the largest year-over-year growth rate, Washington, and the state with the smallest, Sweden, is 11.67 percentage points.
• The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 28 EU states is -3.08% and the mean -2.49%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 28 EU states is 0.99% and the mean 1.15%.
• The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 50 US states is 3.94% and the mean 3.74%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 50 US states is 5.06% and the mean 5.02%.
• The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 78 EU and US states is 3.36% and the mean 1.50%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 78 EU and US states is 4.45% and the mean 3.63%.
• Ten states' economies grew faster over the previous quarter than they did over the same quarter last year (2 from the EU, 8 from the US).  The remaining 68 states saw their economies grow slower over the previous quarter than they did over the same quarter last year (26 EU, 42 US).
• All EU drops in GDP growth rate with the exception of Sweden's annual drop and Greece's and Bulgaria's quarterly drop are attributed to currency rate fluctuations.

Caveats

• Data is from the fourth quarter of 2018.
• The data is seasonally adjusted in current dollars.
• Euros are converted to dollars at an average exchange rate of 1.14 for the fourth quarter of 2018, 1.16 for the third quarter of 2018, and 1.18 for the fourth quarter of 2017 according to historic rates listed at the Federal Reserve (see source link below).  EU growth rates based on euros are available here.
• US data comes in an annualized format which the EU does not, thus EU data is annualized by multiplying the quarterly figure by four.
• US growth rates may differ from those provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as the BEA's growth rates are based on chained dollars in conjunction with the chain index or the quality index for real GDP.  The growth rates listed here are based on nominal GDP.
• All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.

Details

Greece had the largest decline over the previous quarter with an annualized drop of 7.56%.  Texas had the largest growth with an annualized gain of 5.64%.

Year over year, Sweden had the largest decline with a 3.88% drop in GDP while Washington had the largest growth with a 7.79% rise in GDP.

Bulgaria saw the largest decrease in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth slowing its rate by 9.74 percentage points.  Sweden had the largest increase in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth ramping up its rate by 8.12 percentage points.

Sweden went from having the 78th largest growth rate over the same quarter last year to the 16th largest growth rate over the previous quarter.  Conversely, Malta went from having the 16th highest growth rate over the same quarter last year to the 68th highest growth rate over the previous quarter.  Only three states had growth rates in the top five both over the same quarter last year and over the previous quarter: Texas (2nd highest growth year-over year, highest growth over the previous quarter), Arizona (3rd highest year-over-year, 3rd highest quarterly), and Washington (highest year-over-year, 5th highest quarterly).  Three states had growth rates in the bottom five both over the same quarter last year and over the previous quarter: Germany (74th highest both year-over-year and quarterly), Italy (77th highest year-over-year, 76th highest quarterly), and Greece (76th highest year-over-year, 78th highest quarterly).

Sources

Eurostat.  2019.  "GDP and Main Components."  Accessed May 22, 2019.  http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-406779_QID_60EF9FCD_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;UNIT,L,Z,0;S_ADJ,L,Z,1;NA_ITEM,L,Z,2;INDICATORS,C,Z,3;&zSelection=DS-406779INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-406779UNIT,CP_MEUR;DS-406779S_ADJ,SCA;DS-406779NA_ITEM,B1GQ;&rankName1=UNIT_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=NA-ITEM_1_2_-1_2&rankName4=S-ADJ_1_2_-1_2&rankName5=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName6=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Federal Reserve.  2019.  "Foreign Exchange Rates."  Accessed May 26, 2019.  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis.  2019.  "GDP by State."  Accessed May 22, 2019.  https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state.