The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of September 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Thirteen states have a negative interest rate (same as 13 last month and up from zero last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the states with the lowest long-term interest rate, Denmark and Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.71 percentage points (down from 4.77 last month and up from 4.44 last year). Germany and Romania were the states with the lowest and highest rates respectively last month while Lithuania and Romania had the lowest and highest rates respectively last year.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.18 (up from 0.14 the previous month and down from 0.94 last year) and the mean 0.39 (down from 0.40 the previous month and down from 1.53 last year).
- Four states did not see a change in their long-term interest rate from the previous month, seven saw their rate decrease, and 16 states saw their rate increase.
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from September 2019, August 2019, and September 2018.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Italy saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.50 percentage points. On the flip side, Czechia's rate rose the most gaining 0.25 percentage points. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 2.67 percentage point drop while Lithuania remained unchanged and was the only state whose rate did not fall.
Slovakia (from 8th lowest rate to 5th lowest rate) went up three spots over the course of the month. Greece (from 26th to 24th) rose two spots. Denmark (from 2nd to 1st), Finland (from 7th to 6th), Belgium (from 10th to 9th), Slovenia (from 12th to 11th), Malta (from 16th to 15th), Croatia (from 21st to 20th), and Italy (from 23rd to 22nd) each rose one spot over the month. Conversely, Sweden (from 6th to 10th) dropped the most. Austria (from 5th to 6th), Latvia (from 11th to 12th), Portugal (from 15th to 16th), the United Kingdom (from 20th to 21st), Czechia (from 22nd to 23rd), and Hungary (from 24th to 25th) were each bested by one state.
Over the course of the year, Slovakia (from 15th lowest rate to 5th lowest rate) rose the most besting ten states. Portugal (from 19th to 16th) bested three. Austria (from 8th to 5th), France (from 10th to 8th), Latvia (from 14th to 12th), Spain (from 16th to 14th), Malta (from 17th to 15th), and Greece (from 26th to 24th) each bested two. Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Finland, Belgium, Cyprus, Croatia, and Italy each bested one. On the flip side, Lithuania (from 1st to 17th) was bested by 16 states. Bulgaria (from 12th to 18th) was bested by six. Sweden (from 6th to 10th) and the United Kingdom (from 17th to 21st) were each bested by four. Slovenia (from 9th to 11th) and Czechia (from 21st to 23rd) by two, and Poland was bested by one.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 3.00% in September 2018, 1.63% in August 2019, and 1.70% in September 2019, meaning that only Hungary, Poland, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was at 0.12% in September 2018, -0.23% in August 2019, and -0.23% in September 2019 being bested by Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Austria, Finland, France, and Belgium.
Data
| State | September 2018 | August 2019 | September 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.67 | -0.37 | -0.3 |
| Belgium | 0.77 | -0.28 | -0.24 |
| Bulgaria | 0.78 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Croatia | 2.14 | 0.83 | 0.49 |
| Cyprus | 2.01 | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| Czechia | 2.14 | 0.99 | 1.24 |
| Denmark | 0.37 | -0.58 | -0.59 |
| Finland | 0.66 | -0.35 | -0.3 |
| France | 0.77 | -0.34 | -0.28 |
| Germany | 0.37 | -0.65 | -0.59 |
| Greece | 4.17 | 1.98 | 1.5 |
| Hungary | 3.57 | 1.83 | 2.02 |
| Ireland | 0.93 | -0.05 | -0.01 |
| Italy | 2.96 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Latvia | 0.94 | -0.07 | -0.11 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Luxembourg | 0.51 | -0.54 | -0.5 |
| Malta | 1.52 | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| Netherlands | 0.55 | -0.5 | -0.43 |
| Poland | 3.24 | 1.93 | 2.02 |
| Portugal | 1.88 | 0.17 | 0.2 |
| Romania | 4.75 | 4.12 | 4.12 |
| Slovakia | 0.98 | -0.34 | -0.34 |
| Slovenia | 0.75 | -0.06 | -0.16 |
| Spain | 1.46 | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| Sweden | 0.6 | -0.36 | -0.23 |
| United Kingdom | 1.52 | 0.49 | 0.58 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2019. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed November 5, 2019. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_-661C14FC_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2019. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed November 5, 2019. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_4FFEEF00_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.