What to Look for in the 2017 Alabama Special Senatorial Race

The geographically accurate cartogram above represents the population of Alabama's counties.  The more populous a county is, the larger it is on the map.  This cartogram shows that Jefferson, Madison, and Mobile are the most populous counties by far and together the three counties account for just under 30 percent of the state's total population.  This, in a state with 67 counties.

Findings

• Nine counties make up over half the state's population leaving the remaining 58 counties with just less than half.
• Four counties (Jefferson, Mobile, Madison, and Montgomery) make up one-third of the state's population.
• Jefferson and Mobile counties make up one-fifth of the population.

Caveats

• The data is from 2010, the last year the Census took place.
• The borders represent the area of the county if it were based on population.  The larger the population, the larger the county.
• The map is presented in an Albers equal-area conic projection.
• The choropleth classification is based on Jenks or natural breaks.

Details

Jefferson county tends to overwhelmingly vote Democratic as do Sumter, Greene, Hale, Marengo, Perry, Wilcox, Dallas, Lowndes, Montgomery, Macon, Bullock, and Russell.  These counties account for 23.24 percent of the state's total population.  In addition, Barbour and Conecuh counties tend to swing and they account for an additional 0.85 percent.

One should note, that Alabamians tended to vote for Blue Dog Democrats up until Newt Gingrich's Contract with America in the 1990s.  Ever since then, voting Republican has become more palatable to the Alabama voter and they have continued to do so to the present day.

Tomorrow, one should keep an eye on voter turnout in Jefferson County to see if the Democrats decide to show up to the polls.  Republican counties tend to be less populous and their results are likely to show up first.  However, there are several small Democratic counties that should also report early results.  Noting how these counties will skew will be key to predicting the ultimate outcome.

Data

County	Population	Percent of Statewide Total
Jefferson	658,466	13.78
Mobile	412,992	8.64
Madison	334,811	7
Montgomery	229,363	4.8
Shelby	195,085	4.08
Tuscaloosa	194,656	4.07
Baldwin	182,265	3.81
Lee	140,247	2.93
Morgan	119,490	2.5
Calhoun	118,572	2.48
Etowah	104,430	2.18
Houston	101,547	2.12
Marshall	93,019	1.95
Lauderdale	92,709	1.94
St. Clair	83,593	1.75
Limestone	82,782	1.73
Talladega	82,291	1.72
Cullman	80,406	1.68
Elmore	79,303	1.66
DeKalb	71,109	1.49
Walker	67,023	1.4
Blount	57,322	1.2
Autauga	54,571	1.14
Colbert	54,428	1.14
Jackson	53,227	1.11
Russell	52,947	1.11
Dale	50,251	1.05
Coffee	49,948	1.04
Dallas	43,820	0.92
Chilton	43,643	0.91
Tallapoosa	41,616	0.87
Escambia	38,319	0.8
Covington	37,765	0.79
Lawrence	34,339	0.72
Chambers	34,215	0.72
Pike	32,899	0.69
Franklin	31,704	0.66
Marion	30,776	0.64
Barbour	27,457	0.57
Geneva	26,790	0.56
Cherokee	25,989	0.54
Clarke	25,833	0.54
Winston	24,484	0.51
Monroe	23,068	0.48
Bibb	22,915	0.48
Randolph	22,913	0.48
Macon	21,452	0.45
Marengo	21,027	0.44
Butler	20,947	0.44
Pickens	19,746	0.41
Washington	17,581	0.37
Henry	17,302	0.36
Fayette	17,241	0.36
Hale	15,760	0.33
Cleburne	14,972	0.31
Lamar	14,564	0.3
Clay	13,932	0.29
Crenshaw	13,906	0.29
Choctaw	13,859	0.29
Sumter	13,763	0.29
Conecuh	13,228	0.28
Wilcox	11,670	0.24
Coosa	11,539	0.24
Lowndes	11,299	0.24
Bullock	10,914	0.23
Perry	10,591	0.22
Greene	9,045	0.19

Sources

United States Census Bureau.  "Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016."  Accessed December 8, 2017. http://factfinder2.census.gov.