The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of October 2020, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Thirteen states have a negative interest rate (same as 13 last month and up from 11 last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 3.90 percentage points (down from 4.01 last month and down from 4.59 last year). Germany had the lowest rate last year and last month. Romania had the highest rate last year and last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.16 (same as 0.16 the previous month and down from 0.19 last year) and the mean 0.28 (down from 0.36 the previous month and down from 0.43 last year).
- Two states saw no change in the long-term interest rate from the previous month, 23 saw the rate decrease, and two saw the rate increase.
- Zero states saw no change in the long-term interest rate from last year, 23 saw the rate decrease, and four saw the rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from October 2020, September 2020, and October 2019.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Cyprus saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.28 percentage points. On the flip side, Sweden saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.05 percentage points. Year over year, Romania saw its rate drop the most with a 0.83 percentage point drop while Hungary saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.33 percentage points.
Spain (from 17th lowest rate to 15th lowest rate) and Portugal (from 18th to 16th) each went up two spots over the course of the month. Conversely, Bulgaria (from 15th to 17th), the United Kingdom (from 16th to 18th), and Czechia (from 22nd to 24th) dropped the most being bested by two states each.
Over the course of the year, Lithuania (from 18th to 14th) rose the most besting four states. On the flip side, Sweden (from 8th to 13th) was bested by five states.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was 1.70% in October 2019, 0.68% in September 2020, and 0.78% in October 2020, meaning that Greece, Czechia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was -0.16% in October 2019, 0.02% in September 2020, and 0.03% in October 2020 being bested by Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Finland, Slovakia, Belgium, France, Latvia, Ireland, Slovenia, and Sweden.
Data
| State | October 2019 | September 2020 | October 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | -0.2 | -0.32 | -0.4 |
| Belgium | -0.16 | -0.25 | -0.34 |
| Bulgaria | 0.25 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Croatia | 0.47 | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| Cyprus | 0.51 | 0.72 | 0.44 |
| Czechia | 1.32 | 0.98 | 0.94 |
| Denmark | -0.43 | -0.39 | -0.46 |
| Finland | -0.21 | -0.3 | -0.38 |
| France | -0.16 | -0.21 | -0.3 |
| Germany | -0.47 | -0.52 | -0.61 |
| Greece | 1.34 | 1.08 | 0.9 |
| Hungary | 1.94 | 2.39 | 2.27 |
| Ireland | 0.02 | -0.13 | -0.22 |
| Italy | 1 | 0.98 | 0.77 |
| Latvia | 0 | -0.2 | -0.23 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Luxembourg | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.54 |
| Malta | 0.26 | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| Netherlands | -0.31 | -0.44 | -0.53 |
| Poland | 1.96 | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| Portugal | 0.19 | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| Romania | 4.12 | 3.49 | 3.29 |
| Slovakia | -0.2 | -0.27 | -0.35 |
| Slovenia | -0.09 | -0.08 | -0.13 |
| Spain | 0.2 | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| Sweden | -0.16 | -0.08 | -0.03 |
| United Kingdom | 0.61 | 0.21 | 0.24 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2020. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed December 8, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_346D15E8_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2020. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed December 8, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_6D34FD79_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.