The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of November 2020, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Twelve states have a negative interest rate (down from 13 last month and up from nine last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 3.65 percentage points (down from 3.90 last month and down from 4.67 last year). Germany had the lowest rate last year and last month. Romania had the highest rate last year and last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.07 (down from 0.16 the previous month and down from 0.22 last year) and the mean 0.24 (down from 0.28 the previous month and down from 0.55 last year).
- Of the 27 states, five saw no change in the long-term interest rate from the previous month, 19 saw the rate decrease, and three saw the rate increase.
- Of the 27 states, two saw no change in the long-term interest rate from last year, 23 saw the rate decrease, and two saw the rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from November 2020, October 2020, and November 2019.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Romania saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.25 percentage points. On the flip side, Czechia saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.18 percentage points. Year over year, Romania saw its rate drop the most with a 1.28 percentage point drop while Croatia and Hungary saw their rate rise the most gaining 0.20 percentage points.
Portugal (from 16th lowest rate to 14th lowest rate) and Cyprus (from 20th to 18th) rose two spots over the course of the month. Conversely, Lithuania (from 14th to 16th) fell two spots.
Over the course of the year, Slovakia (from 12th to 7th) rose five spots. On the flip side, Slovenia (from 9th to 12th), Sweden (from 10th to 13th), Bulgaria (from 14th to 17th), Malta (from 17th to 20th), and Croatia (from 19th to 22nd) fell three spots.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was 1.81% in November 2019, 0.78% in October 2020, and 0.87% in November 2020, meaning that Czechia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was -0.09% in November 2019, 0.03% in October 2020, and 0.03% in November 2020 being bested by Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Finland, Slovakia, Belgium, France, Ireland, Latvia, Slovenia, and Sweden.
Data
| State | November 2019 | October 2020 | November 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | -0.09 | -0.4 | -0.41 |
| Belgium | -0.04 | -0.34 | -0.38 |
| Bulgaria | 0.22 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Croatia | 0.53 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| Cyprus | 0.58 | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| Czechia | 1.47 | 0.94 | 1.12 |
| Denmark | -0.31 | -0.46 | -0.46 |
| Finland | -0.08 | -0.38 | -0.4 |
| France | -0.02 | -0.3 | -0.33 |
| Germany | -0.35 | -0.61 | -0.61 |
| Greece | 1.36 | 0.9 | 0.75 |
| Hungary | 1.95 | 2.27 | 2.15 |
| Ireland | 0.07 | -0.22 | -0.25 |
| Italy | 1.27 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| Latvia | 0.1 | -0.23 | -0.25 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Luxembourg | -0.27 | -0.54 | -0.54 |
| Malta | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| Netherlands | -0.19 | -0.53 | -0.54 |
| Poland | 2.05 | 1.26 | 1.2 |
| Portugal | 0.35 | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| Romania | 4.32 | 3.29 | 3.04 |
| Slovakia | 0.09 | -0.35 | -0.39 |
| Slovenia | -0.01 | -0.13 | -0.18 |
| Spain | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Sweden | 0 | -0.03 | 0 |
| United Kingdom | 0.73 | 0.24 | 0.31 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2021. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed January 11, 2021. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_7EAC48FD_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2021. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed January 11, 2021. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_-39FB56E9_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.