The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of January 2021, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Twelve states have a negative interest rate (same as 12 last month and up from eight last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 3.30 percentage points (down from 3.56 last month and down from 4.59 last year). Germany had the lowest rate last year and last month. Romania had the highest rate last year and last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.07 (up from 0.03 the previous month and down from 0.15 last year) and the mean 0.22 (down from 0.21 the previous month and down from 0.58 last year).
- Of the 27 states, four saw no change in the long-term interest rate from the previous month, three saw the rate decrease, and 20 saw the rate increase.
- Of the 27 states, zero saw no change in the long-term interest rate from last year, 25 saw the rate decrease, and two saw the rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from January 2020, December 2020, and January 2021.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Romania saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.22 percentage points. On the flip side, Slovakia saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.09 percentage points. Year over year, Romania saw its rate drop the most with a 1.56 percentage point drop while Hungary saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.14 percentage points.
Denmark (from 5th lowest rate to 4th lowest rate), Portugal (from 14th to 13th), Croatia (from 22nd to 21st), and Poland (from 25th to 24th) rose one spot over the course of the month. Conversely, the Netherlands (from 2nd to 3rd), Slovakia (from 4th to 5th), Ireland (from 10th to 11th), Sweden (from 13th to 14th), Cyprus (from 17th to 18th), Italy (from 21st to 22nd), Greece (from 22nd to 23rd), and Czechia (from 24th to 25th) fell one spot.
Over the course of the year, Slovakia (from 13th to 5th) rose eight spots. On the flip side, Sweden (from 11th to 14th), Bulgaria (from 14th to 17th), and Malta (from 17th to 20th) fell four spots.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was 1.75% in January 2020, 0.93% in December 2020, and 1.06% in January 2021, meaning that Poland, Czechia, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was -0.02% in January 2020, 0.02% in December 2020, and 0.03% in January 2021 being bested by Sweden, Spain, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the United Kingdom, Malta, Croatia, Italy, Greece, Poland, Czechia, Hungary, and Romania.
Data
| State | January 2020 | December 2020 | January 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | -0.09 | -0.42 | -0.4 |
| Belgium | -0.03 | -0.39 | -0.36 |
| Bulgaria | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| Croatia | 0.61 | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| Cyprus | 0.61 | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| Czechia | 1.62 | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| Denmark | -0.26 | -0.47 | -0.44 |
| Finland | -0.07 | -0.41 | -0.38 |
| France | -0.01 | -0.34 | -0.31 |
| Germany | -0.31 | -0.62 | -0.58 |
| Greece | 1.34 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| Hungary | 2.08 | 2.15 | 2.22 |
| Ireland | 0 | -0.29 | -0.24 |
| Italy | 1.28 | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| Latvia | 0.11 | -0.29 | -0.29 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Luxembourg | -0.25 | -0.55 | -0.54 |
| Malta | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Netherlands | -0.17 | -0.55 | -0.53 |
| Poland | 2.23 | 1.29 | 1.19 |
| Portugal | 0.37 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Romania | 4.28 | 2.94 | 2.72 |
| Slovakia | 0.13 | -0.52 | -0.43 |
| Slovenia | 0.09 | -0.23 | -0.17 |
| Spain | 0.42 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Sweden | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| United Kingdom | 0.67 | 0.26 | 0.28 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2021. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed March 8, 2021. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_-513D58BE_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2021. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed March 8, 2021. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_7A00BC73_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.