The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of February 2021, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Eleven states have a negative interest rate (down from 12 last month and same as 11 last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the states with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany and Luxembourg, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 3.10 percentage points (down from 3.30 last month and down from 4.51 last year). Germany had the lowest rate last year and last month. Romania had the highest rate last year and last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.16 (up from 0.07 the previous month and up from 0.12 last year) and the mean 0.34 (up from 0.22 the previous month and down from 0.45 last year).
- Of the 27 states, one saw no change in the long-term interest rate from the previous month, four saw the rate decrease, and 22 saw the rate increase.
- Of the 27 states, zero saw no change in the long-term interest rate from last year, 16 saw the rate decrease, and 11 saw the rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from February 2020, January 2021, and February 2021.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Croatia and Romania saw the rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.07 percentage points. On the flip side, the United Kingdom saw the rate rise the most gaining 0.28 percentage points. Year over year, Romania saw the rate drop the most with a 1.39 percentage point drop while Sweden saw the rate rise the most gaining 0.30 percentage points.
Latvia (from 10th lowest rate to 5th lowest rate) rose five spots over the course of the month. Conversely, Slovakia (from 5th to 9th) fell four spots.
Over the course of the year, Latvia (from 11th to 5th) rose six spots. On the flip side, Sweden (from 10th to 17th) fell seven spots.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was 1.51% in February 2020, 1.06% in January 2021, and 1.25% in February 2021, meaning that Poland, Czechia, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was -0.06% in February 2020, 0.03% in January 2021, and 0.09% in February 2021 being bested by Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Denmark, Latvia, Finland, Belgium, Austria, Slovakia, France, Ireland, and Slovenia.
Data
| State | February 2020 | January 2021 | February 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | -0.26 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| Belgium | -0.13 | -0.36 | -0.21 |
| Bulgaria | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| Croatia | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| Cyprus | 0.56 | 0.21 | 0.3 |
| Czechia | 1.47 | 1.28 | 1.49 |
| Denmark | -0.41 | -0.44 | -0.28 |
| Finland | -0.24 | -0.38 | -0.22 |
| France | -0.18 | -0.31 | -0.15 |
| Germany | -0.47 | -0.58 | -0.45 |
| Greece | 1.07 | 0.65 | 0.81 |
| Hungary | 2.15 | 2.22 | 2.43 |
| Ireland | -0.13 | -0.24 | -0.06 |
| Italy | 0.96 | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| Latvia | -0.04 | -0.29 | -0.25 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Luxembourg | -0.43 | -0.54 | -0.45 |
| Malta | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| Netherlands | -0.34 | -0.53 | -0.39 |
| Poland | 2.07 | 1.19 | 1.31 |
| Portugal | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Romania | 4.04 | 2.72 | 2.65 |
| Slovakia | 0 | -0.43 | -0.18 |
| Slovenia | 0.04 | -0.17 | 0.02 |
| Spain | 0.27 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Sweden | -0.05 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| United Kingdom | 0.57 | 0.28 | 0.56 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2021. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed April 8, 2021. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_176A1C9_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2021. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed April 8, 2021. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_5CF008F5_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.