The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of November 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Nine states have a negative interest rate (down from 11 last month and up from zero last year).

The one, three, and six-month, and the one and two year rates fell in December while all other rates rose.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term rates rose while short-term rates dropped thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

All rates trended downwards following their dramatic turn upwards the previous year after being stuck at zero for several years.  The yield curve widened over the course of the year.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of October 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Eleven states have a negative interest rate (down from 13 last month and up from zero last year).

All rates rose rose in November.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak at one month.  The one-month bill held the lowest rate three times and shared the lowest rate one time in the month.  All rates rose at an even pace thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of September 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Thirteen states have a negative interest rate (same as 13 last month and up from zero last year).

All bill and note rates fell except for the ten-year note which along with all bond rates rose in October.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak at three months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point in the month.  Long-term rates rose while short-term rates dropped thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of August 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Thirteen states have a negative interest rate (up from nine last month and zero last year).

All bill rates fell while all note and bond rates rose in September.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to three months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point in the month but did hold the highest rate on several sessions.  Long-term rates rose while short-term rates dropped, to such a degree that the inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates in the previous month ebbed.  Such an inversion is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of July 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Nine states have a negative interest rate (up from five last month and zero last year).