Treasury Rate Movements, March 2021
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm202103.png)
The one-month, three-month, and one-year rates fell, the six-month remained the same, while all other rates rose in March. The yield curve widened from the previous month thus extending its widening streak to four months. The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions. There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, February 2021
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm202102.png)
The one-month, three-month, six-month, and one-year rates fell, while all other rates rose in February. The yield curve widened from the previous month thus extending its widening streak to three months. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month although it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions. There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, January 2021
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm202101.png)
The one-month, three-month, six-month, and two-year rates fell, the one-year rate stayed the same, and all other rates rose in January. The yield curve widened from the previous month thus extending its widening streak to two months. The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month. There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
A Look Back at Treasuries in 2020
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US Treasury Rates by Maturity](/img/bm2020yr.png)
All rates trended downwards for the second year in a row. The yield curve widened over the course of the year. A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, December 2020
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm202012.png)
The one-year, two-year, and three-year rates fell, the one-month, six-month, and five-year rates stayed the same, and all other rates rose in December. The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month. The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month. There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, November 2020
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm202011.png)
The two-year rate rose, the one-month and three-year rates stayed the same, and all other rates fell in November. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak of one month. The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month. There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, October 2020
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm202010.png)
The three-month rate fell, the one-month and six-month rates stayed the same, and all other rates rose in October. The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month. The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and shared it with the three-month on several occasions. There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, September 2020
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm202009.png)
The three-year rate rose, the one-month, one-year, and five-year rates stayed the same, and all other rates dropped in September. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak of one month. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month but shared it with the three-month on one occasion. There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, August 2020
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm202008.png)
All rates except for the one-month bill rose in August. The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month. The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month. There were no drastic moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, July 2020
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm202007.png)
All rates fell in July. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its steady streak of one month. The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month. There were no drastic moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
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